Ali Vaez, senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, cautions that the US and Israel’s military actions against Iran could turn into a prolonged conflict with serious regional and global consequences.
Vaez explained that pressure-based diplomacy, especially under US President Donald Trump, has failed. Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) and reliance on one-sided tactics made compromise with Tehran unlikely. Military strikes have temporarily degraded Iran’s capabilities but cannot eliminate its nuclear knowledge or missile programs.
The expert outlined two risky paths: de-escalation or escalation. Ground troop deployment could trap the US in a “mission creep” scenario reminiscent of Vietnam, while targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure could spark retaliation, pushing global oil prices above $250 per barrel and triggering economic turmoil.
Gulf states are caught in a strategic bind, reliant on US protection yet geographically close to Iran, unable to avoid exposure to the conflict. Vaez warned that neither side has achieved a decisive victory; Iran survives with retaliatory capacity, and US-Israeli strikes have not forced regime change.
Israel’s broader strategic aim may involve weakening Iran internally to prevent regional power projection, potentially using civilian infrastructure strikes to achieve this. The conflict also threatens the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); if Iran pursues nuclear weapons, it would become the 10th nuclear state, encouraging proliferation worldwide.
Vaez stressed that the longer the conflict continues, the higher the risks—for regional stability, the global economy, and nuclear security. He concluded that a ceasefire, though unattractive to some, represents the safest path forward.
Source: AA
