Analysts warn that while Iran may appear weakened, it still has the capacity to retaliate against the United States. Nate Swanson of the Atlantic Council wrote in Foreign Affairs that Iranian leaders may feel compelled to respond forcefully to deter future threats.
Iran previously launched missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq in 2020 and in Qatar last year. Though those strikes caused damage, early warnings prevented casualties. Tehran has also been accused of using proxy groups and criminal networks to target dissidents, Israelis, and Jewish sites abroad.
Leadership and Regional Risks
Speculation over potential strikes targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified tensions. Experts say even if Khamenei were killed, Iran’s political system would likely endure, with power possibly shifting to a committee or the Revolutionary Guard.
U.S. ally Israel has warned of a heavy response to any Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expressed concern about being drawn into a wider conflict.
Iran’s regional allies — including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen — have suffered setbacks since the October 2023 war triggered by Hamas’ attack from Gaza.
Oil and Nuclear Flashpoints
One major pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil trade passes. Any disruption could send oil prices soaring. Iranian forces recently signaled its vulnerability during military drills.
At the same time, nuclear tensions persist. After withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, Washington accused Tehran of accelerating uranium enrichment. While key Iranian facilities were damaged in recent strikes, uncertainty remains over the status of enriched material.
Indirect talks between Iran and the United States are set to resume in Geneva, as both sides seek to avoid a broader regional war.
SOURCE: AP NEWS
