Farashin mai da ke tashi sakamakon yaƙi da Iran na tasiri kan tattalin azriƙin ƙasashen Afirka, inda yake barazanar haddasa ƙarin kudin mai a faɗin nahiyar, kamar yadda ƙwararru da masu sharhi suka bayyana.
Afirka tana shigar da da yawa daga cikin kayayyakin man fetur din da take amfani da su, lamarin da ya sa ƙasashe da yawa suke shiga matsala domin katse rarraba mai sakamakon tashin hankali a Gabas Ta Tsakiya, wani yanki da ya kasance cibiyar kwararar mai a duniya.
“Afirka ta fi shigoar da mai a kan fitarwa, abin da ke nufin cewa ba ta da kariya daga irin waɗannan tashe-tashen hankulan,” in ji Nick Hedley, mai sharhi kan binciken makamashi a kamfanin binciken makashi na Zero Carbon Analytics.
Idan man da ake samarwa a duniya ya ragu, farashi zai ƙaru inda kuma darajar kuɗaɗen ƙasashen Afirka ke yawan raguwa yayin da masu zuba jari suke ɗauke kuɗaɗensu zuwa kan kadarori da suke da kariya irin su dalar Amurka, kamar yadda Nedley ya bayyana.
Rage ƙimar kuɗi
Waɗannan abubuwan ne suka ƙara tasirin tashin farashin kan ƙasashen da kasuwanninsu suka dogara da shigowa da mai irin su Kenya da Ghana.
An samu irin wannan lamarin a lokacin da Rasha ta ƙaddamar da hari kan Yukrain a shekarar 2022, yayin da tashin farashin ɗanyen mai da kuma faɗuwar darajar kuɗi ya tayar da farashin man a Afirka Ta Kudu zuwa fiye da kashi 25 cikin 100 a cikin watanni shida, in ji Hedley.
“Barazanar rashin tabbas na zuwa ne yawanci daga tashin farashin mai da kuma faɗuwar darajar kuɗade yayin da masu zuba jari suke ƙaurace wa zuwa ƙadarori da suke da kariya,” in ji babban masanin tattalin arziƙi a kamfanin Oxford Economics mai ba da shawara game da tattalin arziƙin ƙasashe, Brendon Verster.
Kawo yanzu dai kasuwannin mai sun mayar da hankali sosai kan rikicin saboda muhimmancin Mashigin Ruwan Hormuz, wata tsukakkiyar hanyar jiragen ruwa inda kimanin kashi biyar cikin 100 na ɗanyen mai ɗin duniya ke wucewa.
Tasirin tashin farashin mai a faɗin Afirka zai sha bamban.
Tabbatar da samar da mai
Ƙasashe irin su Kenya da Uganda sun ce samun mansu bai sauya ba duk da cewa suna aiki domin tabbatar da ɗorewarsa. Nijeriya da Ghana na samar da ɗanyen mai, amma suna shigar da da yawa daga cikin tataccen mansu, lamarin da ya rage musu jin daɗin tashin farashin mai a duniya.
“Yana na da wahala a yanzu a iya cewa za su ci riba,” in ji Hedley. “Masu samar da mai za su iya cin riba daga tashin farashin ɗanyen mai, amma akwai alamun ‘yan ƙasashen za su fuskanci tashin farashin tafiye-tafiye da na mai, kuma wannan zai iya ƙara yawan kuɗin ruwa.”
Duk da haka, tashin farashi na lokaci mai tsawo zai iya kawo garaɓasa ga muhimman ƙasashe masu samar da mai a Afirka.
Verster ya ce Nijeriya na fitar da kimanin gangar ɗanyen mai miliyan 1.5 a kowace rana kuma ta tsara kasafin kudinta na ‘yan shekaru ne kan sayar da kowace gangar mai ɗaya kan dala 64 zuwa dala 66 har zuwa shekarar 2028.
Yaƙin ya tura farashin zuwa fiye da dala $100 kan kowace gangar mai ranar Litinin, wani matakin da idan hakan ya ci gaba, zai ƙara kuɗaɗen shiga ga ƙasashe masu fitar da mai ciki har da Angola da Algeria da Libya.
Sai dai kuma ga yawancin gidaje a Afirka, tasirin lamarin na nan-take shi ne ƙarin tsadar rayuwa.
“Wannan abin damuwa ne sosai,” in ji Hedle , yana mai cewa yawancin kayayyakin abinci a faɗin Afirka ana jigilarsu ne ta hanyar. “Saboda haka tashin farashin mai zai ƙara hauwhawar farashi da kuma rage ƙarfin sayayyar gida.”
Gwada juriyar tattalin arzikin ƙasashe
Peter Attard Montalto, babban manajan kamfanin ba da shawara na Afirka ta Kudu Kruthan ya ce rikicin yana kuma gwada juriyar tattalin arziƙin ƙashahsen Afirka.
“Kawo yanzu tasirin ya taƙaitu, ga ƙasashe irin su Afirka Ta Kudu,” i ji shi, yana mai cewa garambawul na tattalin arziki da aka yi kwanan nan ya taimaka wajen daidaita kasuwannin kuɗin ƙasar a da na musayar lamuni.
“Har ila yau, ana tsammanin tashin farashin mai da iskar gas zai yi tasiri a hauwhawar farashi cikin watanni masu zuwa,” in ji Montalto.
Ƙasashen da suka riga suka fara aiki ƙarƙashin tsare-tsaren asusun ba da lamuni na ƙasa da ƙasa IMF za su iya fuskantar ƙarin matsi yayin da kuɗin shigowa da makamashi ke ƙarar da ajiyarsu ta kuɗaɗen ƙetare.
Cikin ƙasashe da suka fi shiga cikin wannan barazanar ne ƙasashen Sudan da Gambia da Jamhuriyar Afirka ta Tsakiya da Lesotho da Zimbabwe.
Idan aka daɗe a haka, masu sharhi sun ce rikicin zai iya ƙarfafa kiraye-kirayen da ake yi cewa ƙasashen Afirka su faɗaɗa hanyoyin samun makamshinsu kuma su rage dogaro kan shigo da mai .
“Abu ne da ya dace da hankali a ɓangaren dabara ƙasashen Afirka su tabbatar da tsaro da ‘yancin kai na makamahi na lokaci mai tsawo,” in ji Kennedy Mbeva, wani jami’in bincike a cibiyar bincike kan barazana mai iya hallakarwa a Jami’ar Cambridge.
Cim ma hakan, in ji Mbeva, zai buƙaci daidaita matsin kuɗi na lokaci kaɗan da zuba jari a makamashi mai tsafta da kuma gina masana’antu na samar da makamashi mai tsafta.
